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Israel Still Relatively Safe Despite Intifada TruthNews Commentary, May 3, 2001 Since the Palestinian uprising began in Israel in September of 2000, tourism to Israel has declined because of the supposed danger of traveling to Israel. However, an analysis of the data indicates that, despite the seemingly-daily news reports of terrorist killings, the probability of dying in a terrorist attack in Israel is still relatively low. Prior to the intifada, the murder rate in Israel was about 2 cases per 100,000 population, similar to the rate in many European countries but only a fraction of America’s murder rate of 8 cases per 100,000. According to FBI statistics, the U.S. murder rate in recent years has ranged from a high of 9.8 cases per 100,000 in 1991 to a low of 6.3 cases per 100,000 in 1998. According to the CIA’s World Fact Book, Israel has a population of 5,842,454, which includes Jewish settlers living in the occupied territories, who are citizens of Israel, but not the Palestinians in the occupied territories, who are not citizens. Based on this population figure, Israel has an average of around 117 murders per year. In the eight and a half months since the intifada began in September, 76 Israelis have been murdered in Palestinian terrorist attacks or have died in battles with Palestinian terrorists. On an annualized basis, this is equivalent to an additional 107 murders per year, thus nearly doubling Israel's murder rate to approximately 4 per 100,000, which is still 50 percent less than the murder rate in America. Just as in America, there are some areas of Israel in which the likelihood of being murdered is higher than in others. Most of the 76 Israelis who have died in the intifada have been killed in either the West Bank or the Gaza strip. Of the 76 deaths, only 18 have occurred in terrorist attacks inside the "green line" (the pre-1967 border of Israel). On an annualized basis, this is equivalent to an additional 25 murders per year. Thus if only the area within the pre-1967 borders of Israel are considered, then the murder rate would increase from 2 per 100,000 to 2.4 per 100,000, which is 70 percent lower than America’s 8 per 100,000. Thus, while the despicable Palestinian terrorist attacks have resulted in the tragic loss of innocent life, the actual probability of being killed by violence in Israel is still less than half of that in the U.S. (unless, of course, you’re a Palestinian suicide bomber or a rioter who attacks a soldier). So you Americans who are reluctant to visit Israel should reconsider -- you’re safer in Israel than you are in America. If you don’t get murdered on your way to the airport, you may actually lengthen your lifespan by visiting Israel. By the way, if you live in Oklahoma City, you should really consider moving. The capitol of the Sooner state experienced a murder rate due to terrorism of 35 cases per 100,000 in 1995. By comparison, since the intifada began, Jerusalem has experienced a murder rate due to terrorism of 0.5 per 100,000 (2 people killed in 8.5 months, which equates to an annualized rate of 2.8 per year for a population of 602,000).
© 2001 TruthNews. All Rights Reserved. And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.
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