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Cheney Begins Regional Tour In Azerbaijan

September 03, 2008

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney has arrived in Azerbaijan for the first stop in a tour of former Soviet republics.

Cheney is expected to meet with President Ilham Aliyev and other top officials in a country that is home to some of the region's largest oil and gas reserves and is part of a major energy pipeline corridor.

Cheney, who has strongly criticized Russia for its military incursion into Georgia, will then head to Tbilisi and from there to Kyiv.

Both Georgia and Ukraine have pro-Western leaders who are defying Moscow by seeking membership in NATO.

Reports say the U.S. administration is planning to announce today an aid package of some $1 billion to help Georgia rebuild after last month's conflict with Russia.

Cheney's stop in Tbilisi is seen as a sign of U.S. support for Georgia following the fighting over its pro-Moscow separatist region of South Ossetia.

Russia has withdrawn some forces but others are still inside Georgian territory proper as part of what Moscow says is a peacekeeping mission but which Tbilisi has called an occupying force.

In Ukraine, Cheney was scheduled ahead of his trip to meet on September 5 with President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose ruling coalition collapsed today.

After Kyiv, Cheney heads to Italy to attend an economic forum.

Energy Security

Aside from the situation in Georgia, energy issues are likely to dominate Cheney's talks in Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan pumps nearly 1 million barrels of crude oil a day through a BP-led pipeline that passes through Georgia and Turkey -- and bypasses Russia.

But Azerbaijan has diverted some of its crude through Russia, citing the conflict in Georgia as part of the reason.

The two Caucasus countries are also both important in plans for the Western-backed Nabucco pipeline, which would link Central Asia gas suppliers to Europe, bypassing Russia.

There is no question that Cheney's visit to the two Caucasus states is meant to send a strong message to Moscow, according to Stanley Kober, a longtime analyst of Russia and the Soviet Union.

"I think they do want to send a message of firmness," says Kober. "But my concern here is the rhetoric, at least, is becoming extreme. I compare this to a game of chess. Diplomacy is like chess. You make a move, and then the other guy makes a move. And one of the problems is, I'm not seeing enough attention to: 'Well, if we do this, what will be the response?' "

Kober says the best Cheney can hope to do is to express U.S. opposition to Russia's role in the Georgia crisis, U.S. support for Georgia's efforts to establish democratic reform, and not make any promises unless he's fully confident that this and subsequent American administrations can keep them.

RFE/RL correspondent Andrew F. Tully contributed to this story from Washington, and with agency reports