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Israel News Digest

David Dolan, Christian Friends of Israel, Jerusalem
January 2000

EXCITING YEAR AHEAD

The year 2000 was already slated to be a pivotal one in Israel. A framework Final Status peace agreement was scheduled to be signed with the Palestinians in February, and an overall peace accord in September. Even if the deadlines are missed, as many expect, no one doubts that emotions will run high as explosive topics like the dismantling of Jewish settlements in Israel's biblical heartland, the fate of several million Palestinian refugees and the possible redivision of Jerusalem are negotiated. Now, the spicy Golan Heights issue has been hurled into the boiling soup, guaranteeing an even more interesting year ahead.

The Golan bombshell landed just after negotiations with the Palestinians reached a stalemate, with Yasser Arafat warning that the peace process would collapse if Israel continued to build apartments in the disputed territories. The Israeli public did not seem too bothered by the apparent deadlock, having gotten used to Arafat's frequent temper tantrums. They were instead preoccupied with various saucy scandals, especially one involving murder-for-hire allegations against a newspaper publisher. Then, while no one was looking, US President Bill Clinton announced that high-level peace talks would resume in Washington between Israel and Syria after a nearly four year hiatus. The unexpected news knocked the publisher, and even Arafat, off the front pages.

Clinton's December 8 announcement caught Israeli politicians and pundits by surprise. President Ezer Weizman and others had expressed strong doubts that Syrian dictator Hafez Assad was prepared to resume negotiations. Many Israeli Mideast experts expressed similar sentiments. It seemed that the Israeli public would be spared the trauma of dealing with two major issues at the same time. Now, everything is up in the air.

The reopening of talks with Syria was officially welcomed by Prime Minister Ehud Barak. His desire to end the state of war with all neighboring Arab states is sincere. But privately he knows the move spells the potential undoing of his patchwork coalition government, and an increased chance for political violence in the streets. Indeed, Israeli analysts say the load on Barak's shoulders in the coming months may be greater than any one human being can bear.

The implications of a Syrian-Israeli peace accord are enormous. Security experts agree it would officially spell the end of the protracted Arab-Israeli conflict, with no frontline country left to oppose the Jewish State. It would probably open a flood of foreign investment and tourism to Israel, with some money also going to Syria. However, many also warn that an accord with the hate-filled Assad could be the biggest trap that tiny Israel ever fell into. They say there can be no lasting peace until all of Israel's sworn enemies, especially Iran and Iraq, formally lay down their swords. Abandoning the Golan Heights before then is both risky and premature.

The strategic plateau and southern Lebanon will clearly be returned to Arab control under any such accord. Having previously been withdrawn from the Sinai Peninsula, Israeli forces are also evacuating most of Judea and Samaria. If Iraq, Iran or even a tyrant in Damascus subsequently launched a missile blitz upon Israel -- a real prospect despite the peace process -- frontline states might be tempted to join in, annulling their accords with Jerusalem. Enemy ground forces will be far more formidable once Israeli troops and support bases are completely removed from the Golan, south Lebanon and most of Jordan's former West Bank. The potential result for Israel is hair-raising, to say the least.

The dangers posed by Iran were highlighted by the Armed Forces Intelligence chief, who told a Knesset meeting that the Islamic state is expected to boost support for terrorist activities to thwart an accord with Syria. Meanwhile, Israeli security officials joined their American counterparts in warning that Osama Bin Laden is planning unprecedented terrorist strikes in the coming months. Evidence exists that the arch terrorist has acquired a number of Soviet-built nuclear suitcase bombs that can wipe out entire cities. The bombs were reportedly purchased by the Saudi-born millionaire from the Chechen mafia. Although Bin Laden is unlikely to detonate such nuclear bombs in the Muslim Middle East, his henchmen may try to smuggle them into Europe or America.

THE GOLAN SURPRISE

The main unanswered question was whether Barak had caved in to Syria's bellicose demand that Israel surrender a pre-commitment to a complete evacuation. Assad claims that the late Yitzhak Rabin agreed to a total pullout, including from disputed land near the Sea of Galilee occupied by Syrian forces in skirmishes between 1948 and 1967. Peres has stated, with American backing, that no such binding commitment was ever made by his political comrade.

Some of Barak's coalition colleagues, and many political commentators, accused the Premier of pandering to the brutal Syrian despot. Just a few days before Clinton's announcement, he commended Assad as a "brave and honorable leader" who has brought "many benefits" to his people. The compliments were seen by some as a necessary verbal attempt to woo the Syrian dictator back to the peace table. Still, many felt they demonstrated a typical lack of Israeli self-respect when dealing with vain Arab leaders like Assad and Arafat; men responsible for the deaths of thousands of Jews in previous years. This perception was reinforced when Clinton said Barak would not be meeting his Syrian counterpart at the negotiating table, but only Assad's lower ranking foreign minister.

The historic record shows that the Syrian strongman was one of the most ruthless world leaders of the 20th century, massacring tens of thousands of his own citizens -- especially in the town of Hama in 1982. His oppressed people are forced to live in a backward police state where most aspects of daily life are constantly scrutinized by the authorities. As if this were not enough, Syrian forces have occupied most of neighboring Lebanon since 1982. Assad has abused the hapless puppet state by sending many of his unemployed workers there, growing illegal drugs, exporting them from Lebanese ports, and by carrying on his proxy war with Israel. If this is a noble leader, said some commentators, then who would qualify in Barak's opinion as an awful one?

RISKY MOVES

Already at the brief opening ceremony, it became apparent that difficulties lie ahead. Clinton and Barak gave the standard pro-peace pep talks expected at such occasions. But Foreign Minister Farouk Shara did not play according to the script, blaming "Israeli occupation" for the "psychological fear" that he said the country was living in. He maintained that "occupation is undoubtedly the source of all adversities and war."

Since Israel only captured the Golan Heights and other areas in 1967 -- with one major war since then -- Shara was clearly referring to the country's 1948 establishment as an "occupation" of Arab lands. This did not go over very well with Clinton, Barak, or with the Israeli public. He then decried an alleged lack of media attention "to over 50 years of Arab suffering," and berated current coverage of Golan residents instead of the "more than half million Syrians who were uprooted" in the 1967 war, which was "started by Israel." Historians say his "refugee" numbers are grossly inflated, noting that most anyway were the families of Syrian soldiers stationed on the Heights.

Israeli officials say a comprehensive accord could be wrapped up in a matter of months. This is due to the fact that many issues were basically resolved in previous negotiations between 1992 and 1996. However, analysts warn that Assad has shown a tendency to pull back at the last minute, and might do so again. Or he could decide that the time is ripe to put on his "new Saladin" cape and demand that Israel agree to hand over eastern Jerusalem to Muslim control before he signs on the dotted line. After all, the "brave" dictator fancies himself as the ultimate protector of Islam and of dispossessed Palestinians -- who generally resent his egotistical, and sometimes violent, posturing.

The Syrian tyrant has some things to lose, as well as potentially much to gain, in signing an accord. A Clinton-sponsored agreement will place him squarely in the American camp, with US tax dollars following. While this will help his struggling economy, it will also expose him to greater scrutiny from both the White House and Congress. An American tilt is likely to anger his Iranian allies, who might take revenge -- especially if Assad is forced to curb Hizbullah militia activities in Lebanon. He will also come under fresh international pressure to withdraw from Lebanon. Additionally, a peace agreement with a lively democracy like Israel could weaken the aging leader's despotic rule.

SYRIAN THREATS

A reminder of the potential dangers posed by Syria came in late November. Quoting top American military officials, the Washington Times newspaper reported that US spy satellites detected a live Syrian chemical weapons test. The report said a Soviet-built Mig-23 jet dropped a chemical warhead on a Syrian practice range, producing a distinct coloration picked up by orbiting cameras. The coloration was thought to be caused by the Sarin nerve agent. Syria is known to produce the debilitating chemical weapon, along with deadly VX nerve gas. The test demonstrated that Syria can deliver non-conventional weapons by standard bomb-carrying jets, along with ballistic missile warheads.

Israeli officials are also concerned over evidence that Syria is preparing to deploy advanced Scud-D missiles with a range of at least 400 miles. The new Scuds -- manufactured in Syria with Iranian help -- can carry multiple warheads, as can some older missiles obtained from Moscow in the 1980s. The new threat comes as Israel prepares to deploy the most advanced anti-missile system in the world, the Arrow. Analysts here have worried for some time that the pending deployment might tempt Syria and Iran to launch their strategic missiles before the Arrow becomes fully operational.

WOULD IT PASS MUSTER?

Even if Clinton proudly proclaims a few months down the road that overall peace in the Middle East has been achieved in our time, Barak may be left with egg on his face. Assad can make up his mind in the privacy of his bedroom, and that is that. But by law, Barak must bring any peace accord to the Knesset and to the voting public. According to legislation sponsored by the now-defunct Third Way party and approved by the previous Knesset, any withdrawal from sovereign Israeli territory (the Golan Heights was formally annexed by Israel in 1981) must secure the support of at least 61 legislators, along with a majority of voters in a public referendum. If current polls and recent Knesset actions are any indication, a peace accord with Damascus may fail to leap those hurdles. If it falls short, Syria would self-righteously blame Israel for any ensuing consequences.

The 18,000 Israelis living on the Golan are not the sort that left-wing voters can easily hate. For the most part, they do not wear skullcaps or quote the latest rabbinical ruling on the sanctity of Israel's biblical borders. Secular Labor party supporters who voted for Barak in the last election are in the majority. The arguments their leaders present to the nation resonate with many Israelis, not just zealous Orthodox Zionists. They say withdrawing from the blood-soaked Golan, on the basis of an accord with a brutal dictator who comes from a minority Syrian sect, is hardly a solid recipe for enduring peace. Current opinion polls show that their arguments may carry the day.

The head of the Knesset Golan lobby is a member of Barak's own coalition: Yuli Edelstein, of Natan Sharansky's Russian immigrant party. Polls show his hawkish views overwhelmingly reflect the immigrant community, now nearly one in five voters. Sharansky himself warned that he will not support any accord that does not contain ironclad security provisions. The same sentiments were expressed by the 17-man Shas faction -- the second largest in Barak's coalition. Shas leaders know that the vast majority of their supporters are political hawks who might abandon the party if it wholeheartedly embraces a risky Golan withdrawal.

Barak's rocky domestic path ahead was demonstrated the day before he set off for Washington. Even with the support of two Arab opposition parties and the anti-Orthodox Shinui faction, he failed by a wide margin to gain majority Knesset approval for his peace quest. Only 47 legislators supported him, while 31 voted to oppose. An astonishing 24 abstained, including most Shas members. During the debate, Shas Health Minister Shlomo Benizri warned, "whoever thinks the Knesset will simply act as a rubber stamp is mistaken." Seven government members actually voted against their leader, including two Yisrael b'Aliya legislators and the five-man NRP. Analysts said the embarrassing vote presages the probable breakup of the current coalition if a Golan "land for peace" deal comes to a vote.

TAKING IT TO THE STREETS

Thousands of pro-Golan demonstrators gathered near the Knesset as Likud leader Ariel Sharon spelled out inside the main arguments of the opposition campaign. Listing a series of concessions he said Barak has already made to the Palestinians and Syria, Sharon said he has "never seen such a hunger for surrender." Facing Barak, he added, "no responsible country would allow itself to do what you are doing, especially since we don't even know who is really ruling in Syria." He then quoted various security experts who warn that a Golan evacuation might not only rob Israel of the vital high ground above the Sea of Galilee, Tiberias and the Israeli panhandle, but also leave it without an enduring peace.

The Premier pledged he will not sign any accord unless he is absolutely convinced that it is good for Israel, enhances security, and will be approved in the promised referendum. He added, "very tough decisions must be made in order to achieve a peace of the brave." These decisions will involve "a painful price, including withdrawal and changes in existing borders."

PALESTINE ON HOLD

Palestinian analysts said there is one good thing that Arafat may reap from renewed Syrian-Israeli talks. If Assad receives the entire Golan back, as expected, it will strengthen Arafat's insistence that every inch of Jordan's former West Bank, including east Jerusalem, be handed over to him. Indeed, PA negotiators handed their Israeli counterparts a position paper in mid-December that echoed Assad's demands, calling for an "international border" to be established "along the armistice line that divided Israel from the West Bank and Gaza Strip before June 4, 1967." Papers issued earlier demanded a return of all Palestinian refugees, the dismantling of all settlements including those in "occupied Jerusalem," the creation of a viable Palestinian state and massive financial compensation for Israel's use of "Palestinian water" over the years.

The explosive refugee issue made headlines when Labor party Knesset member Yossi Katz said Israel "must return Palestinians within the Green Line (pre-1967 borders) as part of the state's recognition of shared responsibility -- together with the Arab states -- for the refugee problem." Katz, who is Labor's official liaison to the PA, said about 100,000 refugees should be allowed into Israel within a framework of family reunification. His comments were quickly denounced by Israeli officials, with the PA saying his proposed number did not go far enough. Pointing out that Israel did not initiate the 1948 war or its refugee flight, Barak said opening the door to any returnees would lead to "unending demands" for more. "Under no circumstances will refugees return to Israel as part of a final accord," he told a Knesset committee, adding, "the final peace accord will deal with the number and mechanism of a return to the Palestinian Authority."

Many Palestinian legislators and ordinary people complain that Arafat's PA government is corrupt and incompetent. The PLO chairman himself admitted as much a couple years ago, but failed to keep promises to rectify the situation. His public excuse is that the struggle for a state must take precedence over fixing bad government. A new complaint was filed by nine elected legislators and a dozen academics in early December, charging Arafat with "opening the doors to opportunism and the spread of corruption." A petition they signed cited statistics showing a decline in education, health and judicial standards. The petitioners also criticized Arafat's handling of peace talks with Israel, saying he is "trading the homeland to enrich a few."

As if to prove that the corruption charges are absolutely true, Arafat promptly ordered the arrest of the academic petition signers. Meanwhile steps were taken to lift the parliamentary immunity of the nine offending legislators so they could be charged with defaming the state. So much for Palestinian democracy. Showing that a police state will not accept any real criticism -- even from its own elected officials -- legislative petitioner Moawiya Masri was then shot twice in the legs by masked gunmen in the town of Nablus. He charged that the late night attack was carried out by Palestinian police. The incident was eerily reminiscent of one that occurred in 1996 when a professor from An Najah University was shot in the legs by masked assailants after writing an article critical of Arafat.

HOLY WARS, FINAL PEACE

A Muslim-Jewish dispute broke out when it was learned that Arab workers were illegally constructing several exit doors from a prayer cavern underneath the Al Aksa mosque on the south side of the Temple Mount. Barak had given permission for one exit door, but the work was supposed to be done in coordination with Israel's Antiquities Authority. Attorney General Rubenstein protested that ancient "remnants of Jewish history" were being carelessly destroyed in the illegal construction. Jerusalem Mayor Olmert then ordered a halt to the project, but the Barak government -- fearing Muslim riots on the sacred site -- overturned the order.

The final dispute was a new chapter in the long-running internal fight to define who is a Jew; or more precisely, who should be allowed to move to Israel under the Law of Return. Shas leader Eli Yishai was among many who called for the law to be amended so that non-Jewish relatives of Jews could not automatically immigrate to Israel. Barak rejected the suggestion.

The issue came up after figures showed over 50% of new arrivals during 1999 were not Jewish according to religious law. Interior Minister Sharansky said some 210,000 immigrants over the past decade were not legally Jewish, about 24% of total arrivals. However, he said most were either spouses, children or other immediate family members of Jews who could not be barred from moving here. Still, he agreed with Yishai that their growing numbers pose a future problem since Gentiles cannot legally marry Jews in Israel. Thank God that the Messiah is coming to Jerusalem, and when he does, "Many peoples will say, come, let us go up to the mountain of the Lord, to the house of the God of Jacob; That He may teach us about His ways, and that we may walk in His paths. For the law will go forth from Zion, and the word of the Lord from Jerusalem." (Isaiah 2:3)

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