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Putin to Visit Cuba

August 29, 2000

Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to visit Cuba in September, according to a Japanese news agency. He will be the first Russian leader to visit Havana since the break up of the Soviet Union.

The relationship between Russia and Cuba, weakened by the fall of the Soviet Union, has been renewed since Putin became Prime Minister last August. Russia maintains a spy post in Cuba, but Russian military aid to Cuba has been non-existent due to Russia's own dire economic straits. In addition, Russia itself is feeding at the trough of billions of dollars provided by the American taxpayer and has to date not wanted to endanger this aid by befriending America's enemies.

One of the world's few remaining communist countries, Cuba is still on the list of official enemies of the United States. In addition to exporting revolution throughout Latin America, Cuba has long been a leading narcotics smuggler to the U.S. and is one of several suspects in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Those who say that communist dictator Fidel Castro ordered Kennedy's 1963 assassination believe the slaying was in retaliation for CIA attempts to kill Castro. Kennedy's assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald, defected to the Soviet Union and lived there for several years before returning to America to assassinate Kennedy.

However, that was then and this is now, and Kennedy's would-be protege Bill Clinton is now hoping to make peace with Kennedy's erstwhile killer. This is where Putin comes in. His visit to Cuba is part of a larger strategy to restore Russian relationships with rogue nations in order to position Russia as a mediator between the dictators of the rogue nations and the United States. As part of this strategy, Putin recently visited North Korea, and Russia has befriended such international pariahs as Yugoslavia and Iraq.

In order to be a mediator, Putin perceives that he will need to befriend the rogue dictators in order to restore Russian influence. How can Putin buy Castro's friendship? One way Putin can help Cuba is by forgiving Castro's foreign debt to Russia. Cuba presently owes Russia $17 billion. This amount is almost equal to Cuba's entire Gross Domestic Product, which is estimated by the CIA at $18.6 billion per year. Castro is currently paying back the debt in amounts of only $200 million per year. At this rate, it will take 85 years for Cuba to repay the debt even if interest is not assessed. Realistically, Russia has no hope of ever getting the debt paid back. However, the annual debt payments amount to over 1 percent of Cuba's GDP and place a tremendous burden on Cuba's almost non-existent economy. Thus, to help Castro, Putin could cancel the debt. The question is whether Russia, its own economy in shambles, could afford to lose even this relatively miniscule amount. The answer depends on how much Putin is willing to pay to restore Russia's global influence.

Russia can also supply Cuba with military equipment and technology. Taking advantage of Castro's perpetual fear for his own security, especially against the United States, Russia could begin transferring arms to Cuba again. Here, there are two concerns for Putin. First, does he want to risk U.S. ire and risk losing his place at the American feeding trough by helping one of America's most implacable foes? This is particularly important since Congress, not the President, controls the flow of cash to Russia. Second, can Putin afford to "sell" arms to Cuba, given that Cuba cannot even afford to repay its debt to Russia? The answer, again, depends on how much Putin is willing to pay to restore Russia's global influence.

Putin's recent attempt to put Russia into the position of international mediator sets Moscow up perfectly to befriend Havana. If Putin is successful in befriending Castro, he may be able to negotiate an end to U.S. trade sanctions against Cuba. This would earn him respect throughout Europe and potentially set him as a global mediator for such conflicts as the Middle East and the struggle between Taiwan and China.

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