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U.S. Optimistic, but Cautious About Changes in Korea By Jim Garamone, American Forces Press Service
The historic meeting in June between South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Chong-il carries much promise for the people of both Koreas. U.S. officials said the ongoing dialogue will inevitably mean changes for the 37,000 U.S. service members stationed in South Korea. But not yet. The meeting in June and subsequent developments have put into motion what one senior U.S. official called a "fundamental transformation" on the Korean Peninsula. But those changes are far from assured and far from irreversible, the official said, and the ongoing process is fragile. Defense Secretary William S. Cohen met with South Korean officials against the backdrop of these changes. Officials traveling with the secretary said many things converged for the north and south to engage. The most important, perhaps, is North Korea's economic desperation. The North’s economy is "broken," U.S. officials said. The North sees its dialogue as necessary to survival, because South Korea is the one country with both the resources and the will to help. President Kim Dae-jung has encouraged the dialogue by being consistent. Since taking office two years ago, he has maintained three bedrock principles for talks with the North.
Many in the world are surprised at the rapid pace of the talks, and some critics say the South is rushing the process. U.S. officials said Kim Chong-il is setting the pace and no one knows for sure why he is moving so fast. The officials surmise that once he decided to approach the South he had no vested interest in moving slowly. Since the meeting, families separated by the Korean War of 1950-1953 have been able to meet under supervised circumstances. The two Koreas also agreed to re-establish a railroad across their demilitarized zone. The most public expression to date of the new atmosphere was the two Koreas marching together during the opening ceremonies at the Sydney Olympics. Polls show that the vast majority of South Koreans approve of the approach. After the meeting, there was a spike in anti-American demonstrations. Many in the country felt that with military tensions dropping that the Americans were no longer needed. President Kim Dae-jung and his ministers went to their people and defended the U.S.-ROK security alliance, saying it's still needed. In fact, Kim said the North Korean leader told him that North Korea understood the need for the United States to stay and agreed with it. U.S. officials said it is too early to say what U.S. forces and their composition would be if the North-South rapprochement continues. They said more than 800,000 North Korean soldiers are still based on the demilitarized zone, and their artillery could still hit Seoul. The current level of U.S. forces in Korea will remain the same, they added. U.S./South Korea Security Meeting Filled with Hope, Realism The Korea-U.S. Security Consultative Meeting held in Seoul is starting to address changes in the region resulting from the engagement between South and North Korea. Defense Secretary William S. Cohen and South Korean Minister of National Defense Cho Song-tae assessed security on the peninsula and in Northeast Asia during their Sept. 21 meeting. Both said hope grows from the Inter-Korean Summit June 13-15, but both also said the U.S.-South Korean alliance must remain strong. "Fifty years after the outbreak of the Korean War, the two Koreas have begun a process to replace confrontation with cooperation and fear with friendship," Cohen said during a post-meeting news conference. "We pledged to maintain a strong defense posture and close coordination on North Korea policies with a view to enhancing inter-Korean relations and joining our efforts for future changes on the Korean Peninsula," Cho said. He noted the June summit would not have been possible without the strong defense provided by the U.S.-South Korean alliance. Cohen called the summit momentous and said he hoped the dialogue leads to a lessening of military tensions along what is often called "the last Cold War border." But North Korea maintains robust chemical, biological, nuclear and long-range missile programs, he said. He urged North Korea to abide by international conventions banning the production, possession and use of these weapons. Cho said the United States and South Korea would set up a commission to study the security implications of the Korean rapprochement. Cohen said he expects U.S. service members to remain in the country for the foreseeable future. Both ministers addressed ongoing negotiations over the U.S.-ROK Status of Forces Treaty. The United States has Status of Forces Agreements with about 80 countries. Among other things, SOFAs govern who has jurisdiction when U.S. service members commit crimes. Korean officials want their SOFA to give them more authority over U.S. service members accused of crimes. Cohen and Cho said they were pleased by the progress of the negotiations. U.S. officials expect the SOFA to be ready by December. The Security Consultative Meeting also highlighted the Land Partnership Plan. Under this, U.S. Forces Korea will work directly with the Korean government to consolidate U.S. units and installations. This would mean a substantial land return to the Korean government. While the plan pre-dates recent demonstrations against some U.S. ranges in South Korea, its implementation may address the protesters' concerns, USFK officials said. It is an exciting time to be in Korea, Cohen said. But change can bring danger -- it is the yin and yang, a concept featured prominently on the Korean flag. The consultative meeting reaffirms the bedrock of the U.S.- Korean alliance. "No one can come to Korea today without being excited about the hope of further benefits from reconciliation," Cohen said. "But no one can leave Korea without an understanding that our combined forces must remain ready and vigilant -- and I assure you, they are that." North Must Reciprocate to Keep Reconciliation on Track North Korea must reciprocate by lessening tensions if it wishes the continuation of South Korean economic aid, Defense Secretary William S. Cohen said. Cohen said North Korea could jeopardize its growing rapprochement with South Korea if gives nothing in return. "[The negotiations] cannot be a one-way street," Cohen said during a Sept. 22 press conference at the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo. "The North cannot take the position that the only basis for discussions is whether economic aid continues to flow north so it can rebuild its economy without some corresponding reductions in military tensions." If the North does not make corresponding reductions, South Korea, the United States and Japan might find themselves in the position of subsidizing the North's military build-up, he said. "That is not a situation that's desirable or achievable," Cohen said. "Reciprocity is the key," he said. The United States believes South Korean President Kim Dae-jung's engagement policy is the correct one to follow, but understands the North Koreans have to show that they are prepared to reduce tensions. "That means they will have to find some confidence-building measures that they will take with their South Korean counterparts to reduce those military tensions, if there is going to be a peaceful reunification," Cohen said. Meetings scheduled soon between the South Korean and North Korean defense ministers may lead to some of these confidence- building measures. Among those Cohen suggested were the North stepping back from its forward-deployed status, eliminating weapons of mass destruction, setting up hot lines and formulating a process for notifications of training exercises. "But these are things the North and South must agree to themselves," he said.
And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.
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