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Analysts Differ Over Rule of Venezuela's Chavez
Greg Flakus, Voice of America Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has made himself one of the most controversial figures in Latin America partly through his actions, but mostly through his rhetoric. The fiery orator and populist politician still commands 60 percent approval ratings and is especially popular with the more than half the population that lives in poverty. But, political analysts differ on where the Chavez rule is taking the country. Since coming to power in February, 1999, Hugo Chavez Frias, a former army colonel who once tried to overthrow the government in a failed coup d'etat, has managed to keep everyone here in a state of confusion. His rhetoric at times sounds strident, but he generally stops short of saying anything specifically threatening to the democratic system. A recent example is his suggestion a few weeks ago, just before going on a three-week foreign trip, that he might have to take extraordinary measures to fight corruption and poverty. This created a flurry of newspaper reports suggesting the president would soon declare a "state of exception," that would allow him to suspend certain constitutional protections. But Janet Kelly, a U.S. born, naturalized Venezuelan citizen who works as a political analyst at a Caracas educational institute says President Chavez is unlikely to take emergency actions. She says his actions since returning from his trip last week reveal his strategy. "Chavez comes back and he says, no, there is not going to be any state of exception and I never said that, but then he complicates it again, because this is his style," she says. "He keeps people on edge. He says "but it is true that the situation is really difficult and maybe someday I will have to do this." So he left the question open. So, how do we judge this? You can say he is a dictator and this is a sign of it or he might be a dictator and we should be careful or that is just his way of speaking. Up to now, in terms of his acts, we have to conclude that that is just his way of speaking." Janet Kelly says Mr. Chavez has produced more rhetorical maneuvers than actual accomplishments and that democratic institutions have prevailed in most instances. But many Chavez opponents see things differently. They say the president has a thinly veiled authoritarian scheme. Maria Teresa Romero, a political science professor and local commentator, is among those who see danger ahead. She says President Chavez has done things to show his anti-democratic leanings. He now has de facto control over all three branches of government and Ms. Romero says he is trying to implement an authoritarian structure in his government. She says he has also tried to take over labor unions and the universities. Ms. Romero is also among those who are worried by the Chavez government's creation of revolutionary cells in the schools. These have been compared to the indoctrination groups found in the educational system in communist Cuba. In fact, President Chavez has shown great affection for Cuban leader Fidel Castro and has invited Cuban advisors to work in both the health and education sectors in Venezuela. But Janet Kelly says this does not mean that President Chavez wants to turn Venezuela into a Marxist state like Cuba. "He has said he would never want to adopt the political system of Cuba in Venezuela, but that Cuba has made some notable gains in health and education, which actually is true, if you compare Cuba with some other Latin American countries, including Venezuela," she says. Ms. Kelly says she understands the concerns of many Venezuelans who oppose the Chavez administration, but she fears some of them may be exaggerating the dangers. She says democracy remains strongly rooted in the South American nation and that even the great support Mr. Chavez enjoys in general terms can dwindle when he attempts something that most people believe goes beyond his mandate. An example she provides is the referendum he initiated last December to oust the leadership of the nation's largest labor coalition. "The abstention in the referendum was so great that the government realized they had no legitimacy to carry out their plan and that plan died too," she says. "In other words, Chavez, in a democracy, cannot do things for which he does not have popular support." But a fear that Janet Kelly shares with many other analysts is that, as the failures of the Chavez government mount and the plight of the poor worsens, a crisis could develop. As Hugo Chavez enters his third year in power, Ms. Kelly notes, even some of the people who have supported him are beginning to wonder when he will start to deliver on his promises. They may also demand that he fulfill the great expectations he has created, largely through his words.
And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.
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